Aurora Innovation's chief financial officer defended the self-driving truck company's goal of putting more than 30,000 autonomous trucks on the road by 2030, telling TechCrunch the target is more realistic than it looks. The interview, published Monday, followed a Sept. 23 investor day at which Aurora laid out the plan and a steep drop in its share price.

What Happened

At the investor day, Aurora said it expects more than 30,000 self-driving trucks generating $5 billion in annual revenue by the end of 2030. For comparison, it expects to have about 200 driverless trucks by the end of this year, at a revenue run rate of $80 million.

CFO David Maday told TechCrunch the goal is modest relative to the market. The four major truck makers build 250,000 to 300,000 new trucks a year, he said, so 30,000 Aurora-equipped trucks would represent a small share of cumulative production. He told the outlet he did not consider the target aspirational.

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Investors were less convinced. On Monday, Aurora shares closed down 12.42% at $5.29, according to TechCrunch.

Why It Matters

The plan depends on a change in how Aurora makes money. Today it runs a transportation-as-a-service business, operating trucks and charging customers around $2 per mile, including a fuel surcharge. Customers include Detmar Logistics, Hirschbach, McLane and Werner. Aurora treats this as a proof of concept and plans to cap it at about 500 trucks.

In 2027, Aurora plans to shift to a driver-as-a-service model in which customers own the trucks and pay a subscription of about $0.85 per mile for the self-driving system. That lowers revenue per mile, but it means the fleet can grow without Aurora paying for the vehicles. Aurora expects to reach breakeven gross margins in the first half of 2027, with about 500 trucks.

Hardware is the other constraint. Aurora's third-generation system, due at the end of 2027, will be mass-produced by Aumovio, formerly Continental's automotive business. According to TechCrunch, Aumovio will also finance the hardware and handle service and repair, shifting more costs to a partner.

The Distance to 2030

Getting from 200 trucks to 30,000 in four years requires growth of roughly 150 times, and most of it would come after the third-generation hardware ships. The company expects more than 1,000 trucks in 2027, which leaves the bulk of the ramp for 2028 through 2030.

Geography must expand too. Aurora now operates in a few states in the South and expects to cover the vast majority of the continental U.S. by 2030. Maday also said Aurora still intends to enter ride-hailing once its cost structure allows, a move that would put it into the robotaxi market.

What to Watch

The next checkpoints arrive in 2027: passing 1,000 trucks, reaching breakeven gross margins, and moving customers onto the $0.85-per-mile driver-as-a-service model. Whether fleets are willing to buy their own Aurora-equipped trucks at scale, and whether Aumovio delivers the third-generation hardware on schedule, will determine if the 2030 target holds.