Chinese chipmakers imported an estimated 343 ASML immersion deep-ultraviolet lithography scanners between 2012 and early 2026, and most of them could be used for 7nm-class production, according to a report from the Washington-based Centre for Technology & Statecraft, Tom's Hardware reported Monday. The group is calling for a complete ban on immersion DUV exports to China.

What Happened

The CTS count covers logic and memory makers and excludes tools installed at multinational companies' fabs inside China. Of the 343 scanners, the report says 270 are ASML's Twinscan NXT:1980i, a model with 38nm resolution and 2.5nm matched-machine overlay. That overlay precision is what makes multipatterning, exposing the same layer several times, workable at 7nm-class geometries. CTS also counts 22 NXT:2050i and six NXT:2000i systems. How many of those 296 more capable machines are running today is unknown.

The report focuses on recent buying. Dutch authorities began requiring licenses for the NXT:2000i and more advanced immersion tools in September 2023, which effectively blocked those models from China and steered buyers to the NXT:1980i. CTS estimates Chinese fabs bought about 90 NXT:1980i scanners in 2024 and 89 in 2025, spending more than $13 billion over the two years. The Netherlands extended licensing to the NXT:1980i in September 2024, but individual exports can still be approved.

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CTS argues that this leaves a gap: scanners bought for older, less sensitive processes can later be reassigned to 7nm-class production. It proposes banning all immersion DUV exports to China and restricting spare parts and maintenance for machines at advanced fabs, an approach Tom's Hardware said lines up with the bipartisan MATCH Act introduced in Congress in April.

Why It Matters

Without ASML's extreme-ultraviolet systems, which have never been shipped to China, Chinese foundries such as SMIC have reached 7nm-class nodes by using immersion DUV tools with multipatterning. The approach costs more and yields less, but it works, as chips in Huawei smartphones since 2023 have shown. If CTS is right about the installed base, existing tools alone give China substantial capacity for advanced chips regardless of future sales.

ASML's own results show how large China became as a market. The country accounted for 41% of ASML's net system sales by shipment destination in 2024 and 33% in 2025, before falling to 19% in the first quarter of 2026 and 14% in the second, a decline ASML had warned investors to expect.

Doubts About the Numbers

Tom's Hardware said the overall count of 343 looks plausible but questioned other estimates. The yearly purchase figures cannot be rebuilt from ASML's published financials. ASML sold 129 immersion ArFi systems worldwide in 2024 and 131 in 2025, so the CTS numbers would imply China took about 70% and 68% of that output despite tightening controls. The outlet also noted that older NXT:1980Di systems are readily available on the secondhand market, a source of capacity that counts of new shipments do not capture.

What to Watch

The report adds weight to supporters of the MATCH Act, which would broaden restrictions on tools and servicing. Key questions are whether Dutch officials keep approving individual NXT:1980i licenses, whether Washington presses the Netherlands and Japan to curb maintenance at Chinese fabs, and how China's share of ASML's sales moves in the company's third-quarter results.