The National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) has finalized its road map for retiring the public-key algorithms that protect most online communication, setting 2030 as the point after which RSA and elliptic-curve cryptography are deprecated and 2035 as the point after which they are barred under its standards, the agency said Tuesday. NIST says organizations that work with the federal government will also be affected, so the dates give vendors and enterprises a fixed benchmark for planning their own migrations.
What Happened
NIST published the final version of "Transition to Post-Quantum Cryptography Standards", known as NIST IR 8547, nearly two years after a draft released Nov. 12, 2024. The report says NIST will deprecate quantum-vulnerable public-key cryptography after 2030 and disallow it under NIST standards and guidelines after 2035.
Post-quantum cryptography refers to newer algorithms designed to withstand attacks from future quantum computers, which could break today's public-key methods. In NIST's terms, a deprecated algorithm may still be used, but the data owner must weigh the security risk; a disallowed one is no longer permitted for that purpose.
The schedule covers RSA and two elliptic-curve digital signature schemes, Diffie-Hellman key exchange in both its classic and elliptic-curve forms, and RSA-based key establishment. Earlier NIST guidance had projected that weaker 112-bit public-key schemes would be disallowed on Jan. 1, 2031; the agency now folds them into the 2030-2035 timeline and says it will revise its transition guide, SP 800-131A, with more detailed schedules. NIST also says it does not expect to standardize any more key-exchange schemes that are not quantum-resistant.
Earlier Deadlines Still Apply
The 2030-2035 window is meant for lower-risk systems and legacy constraints and does not loosen tighter federal deadlines, the report says. Under Executive Order 14412 and Office of Management and Budget memo M-26-15, high-value assets, high-impact systems and other highly sensitive federal systems must adopt post-quantum key establishment by Dec. 31, 2030, and post-quantum signatures by Dec. 31, 2031. Agencies must also support TLS 1.3, the current version of the protocol that secures web traffic, by Jan. 2, 2030. National Security Memorandum 10's 2035 target for completing the federal migration stays in place.
Why It Matters
The urgency comes from what NIST calls the "harvest now, decrypt later" threat: adversaries copy encrypted data now and unlock it once quantum computers are capable enough. The report notes that past cryptographic transitions have taken 10 to 20 years and says the federal deadlines leave little margin.
For boards and executives, the report's practical demand is an inventory: systems that cannot support post-quantum cryptography should be identified and prioritized for replacement or decommissioning. NIST's release adds that migration must account for an organization's wider cryptographic supply chain, which puts suppliers' products in scope.
"We understand there's not one strategy that fits all use cases," Dustin Moody, the NIST mathematician who heads its post-quantum standardization project, said in the release. The Primary Wire reported Oct. 9, citing Federal News Network, that agencies' migration plans are due to the White House by the end of October.
What to Watch
Watch for NIST's revised SP 800-131A schedules, tools from its National Cybersecurity Center of Excellence migration project, and whether sector regulators write the 2030 and 2035 dates into their own rules.
